Singapore's HDB Resale Market: Reading Between the Numbers

The Sharp Correction: Q4 2024's Reality Check

The most dramatic movement happened between Q3 2024 and Q4 2024, when total transactions plunged 21.1% from 8,142 to 6,424 units. This wasn't just a seasonal dip—it was a market-wide correction affecting every flat type:

• 4-room flats dropped 20.6% (3,514 → 2,791)
• 5-room flats fell 22.4% (1,887 → 1,465)
• 3-room flats declined 20.5% (1,999 → 1,590)
• Executive flats slid 21.4% (505 → 397)

What triggered this? The Q4 slowdown likely reflected cooling measures taking effect, rising interest rates making mortgages more expensive, year-end budget constraints, and possibly buyers adopting a wait-and-see approach amid economic uncertainty.

The Gradual Recovery: Building Momentum

But the market didn't stay down. From Q4 2024's low point, we've seen three consecutive quarters of growth:

• Q1 2025: 6,590 transactions (+2.6% from Q4)
• Q2 2025: 7,102 transactions (+7.8% from Q1)
• Q3 2025: 7,221 transactions (+1.7% from Q2)

By Q3 2025, the market recovered to 88.7% of the peak Q3 2024 volume—gaining back 797 transactions from the Q4 trough. The recovery isn't complete, but it's steady and consistent, suggesting buyers are adapting to the new normal rather than waiting for conditions to return to 2024 levels.

3-Room Flats: The Lagging Recovery

3-room flats consistently deliver 1,590-1,999 transactions per quarter (23-26% of the market), making them crucial for first-time buyers. However, they tell a concerning story:

• Peak: 1,999 (Q3 2024)
• Current: 1,713 (Q3 2025, down 14.3% from peak)
• Recovery from Q4 low: Only 7.7% (1,590 → 1,713)

This is the weakest recovery among major flat types, possibly indicating:

• First-time buyers facing persistent affordability challenges
• Young couples stretching budgets to buy 4-room instead of 3-room
• Limited supply in popular mature estates for 3-room units
• Stricter loan conditions affecting entry-level buyers

The fact that 3-room transactions peaked in Q2 2025 (1,760) and then dropped to 1,713 in Q3 is notable—it's the only major category that declined in the most recent quarter.

The 4-Room Flat Dominance: The Market's Workhorse

Across all five quarters, 4-room flats consistently account for 40-44% of all transactions. They're the market's backbone:

• Q3 2024: 3,514 units (43.2% of total)
• Q4 2024: 2,791 units (43.4% of total)
• Q3 2025: 3,176 units (44.0% of total)

Even during the Q4 downturn, 4-room flats maintained their market share. Why? They hit the sweet spot for Singapore families—spacious enough for children, affordable enough for dual-income households, and liquid enough for future upgrades.

The recent climb to 3,176 units in Q3 2025 (up 13.8% from Q4 2024's low) signals renewed confidence among middle-income buyers, though it's still 9.6% below the Q3 2024 peak.

5-Room Flats: The Strongest Recovery

While 4-room flats dominate volume, 5-room flats show the most impressive recovery trajectory:

• Q4 2024 low: 1,465 units
• Q3 2025: 1,657 units (+13.1% recovery)
• Still 12.2% below Q3 2024 peak (1,887)

This segment accounts for roughly 21-23% of transactions, making it the second-largest category. The strong rebound suggests that buyers seeking more space—possibly dual-income professionals, multi-generational families, or upgraders—are returning to the market as they adjust to higher financing costs and find value in larger units.

The Small-Unit Reality: Limited Action

1-room and 2-room flats remain niche markets:

• 1-room: Negligible (1-6 transactions per quarter, averaging 2.4)
• 2-room: Steady at 175-256 units (2.7-3.6% of total volume)

2-room flats show interesting volatility:

• Dropped from 235 (Q3 2024) to 175 (Q4 2024)
• Recovered to 256 (Q2 2025)—the highest in the dataset
• Settled at 224 (Q3 2025)

These smaller units cater to singles, elderly downsizers, or investors. The Q2 2025 spike to 256 units might reflect elderly parents downsizing as their children upgrade, or singles taking advantage of the market recovery to enter homeownership.

Executive Flats: Small But Resilient

Executive flats represent only 5-6% of transactions, but they're showing surprising resilience:

• Dropped from 505 (Q3 2024) to 397 (Q4 2024) - a 21.4% fall
• Recovered to 450 (Q3 2025), up 13.4% from the low point
• Still 10.9% below peak

These larger units (typically 130+ sqm) appeal to upgraders who want space without going private. Their recovery pattern mirrors the 5-room trend—buyers willing to pay premiums for square footage are back in play. The steady climb from 375 (Q1) → 437 (Q2) → 450 (Q3) shows consistent quarter-over-quarter growth.

Quarter-by-Quarter Momentum Analysis

Looking at quarter-over-quarter growth rates:

The slowing growth rate from Q2 to Q3 2025 (+7.8% → +1.7%) suggests the recovery may be plateauing. This could be:

• Natural stabilization at a new equilibrium
• Market exhaustion as pent-up demand gets satisfied
• Seasonal factors (Q3 typically slower than Q2)
• Continued affordability pressures capping demand

What This Means for Buyer and Sellers

For First-Time Buyers:
The 3-room market's weak recovery suggests you're facing the toughest conditions. Consider: Can you stretch to a 4-room in a non-mature estate? The 4-room segment shows stronger momentum and better long-term appreciation potential.

For Upgraders:
If you're moving from 4-room to 5-room or Executive, the data favors you. Both segments are recovering strongly, and you're likely selling a 4-room in the most liquid part of the market.

For Sellers:
Transaction volumes are recovering but haven't returned to 2024 peaks. Price realistically—we're in a buyer's market with more selectivity. The 4-room and 5-room segments show the strongest demand; if you're selling a 3-room, expect longer marketing time.

The Critical Question: What Happens in Q4 2025?

Will Q4 2025 break the pattern? Here's what to watch:

• Best case: Transactions hit 7,500+, showing the market fully recovered to a new, sustainable equilibrium
• Base case: Flat or slight decline to 7,000-7,100, confirming the plateau
• Concern case: Drop below 6,800, suggesting the recovery is stalling

Historically, Q4 is weaker than Q2-Q3 due to year-end holidays and budget exhaustion. If Q4 2025 can maintain above 7,000 transactions despite seasonal headwinds, it would confirm the market's resilience.